Why is Bitcoin inherently deflationary? : AskEconomics

Bitcoin is going exponential!

If you omit the very well-known bubbles like MtGox, the recent China speculation bubble, and the speculation bubble that occurred earlier in 2016, there is a perfectly outlined exponential increase in the value of bitcoin.
When you juxtapose this with the ever-increasing inflation of all fiat currencies, the ever-increasing number of users of bitcoin, the ever-increasing number of companies that accept bitcoin for transactions, the ever-increasing population of the world, the ever-DECREASING supply of bitcoin (inherently deflationary through the exponential decay mining algorithm), and various other factors, there is pretty much NO WAY bitcoin can now decrease in value to any large extent for a long period. Reference coindesks market price chart, and look at it's all-time values. The bubbles are clear, as is the overall trend.
submitted by terr547 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

CMV: BitCoin will never be the most widely used currency because of its inherently deflationary nature

I'll start off by saying all of my economic knowledge comes from some highschool courses and the internet, so I'm bound to get something wrong.
That being said, my actual argument:
Because the ammount of Bitcoins is limited to 21 million, these coins will increase in value as the world economy expands and some are lost.
If the value of a currency increases relative to goods and services, that is called deflation.
That sounds like it's not a big deal. And if you're an investor, it isn't. But if an economy relies on a currency that is undergoing deflation, that economy slows drasticly.
The reason: If you can increase the worth of your money just by sitting on it, many people will do so. Why go through the trouble and risk of investing it if you are guaranteed to make profit (in terms of value) by putting it under your mattress?
Without investments, the economy grinds to a halt. This is why most economists think that moderate inflation is more desireable than even small deflation, some going so far as to say that some ammount of inflation is healthy.
Most people of course already treat Bitcoin as an investment instead of a currency, as you can see by its wild swings in value.
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submitted by Prince_of_Savoy to changemyview [link] [comments]

Bitcoin inherently not deflationary?

I'm a big supporter of bitcoin; both philosophically and practically (lazygranite.com now accepts bitcoin).
Bitcoin seems nearly perfect to me except for what I see as its one flaw. I think a currency that is deflationary is a currency that taxes trade. I understand that many here would disagree with that notion, but it's a common and logical position. Because bitcoin is capped in mining it is inherently inflationary. Or is it?
As digital currency exchanges mature, trading between digital currencies will become more liquid. Today there are probably already over 200 digital currencies. Most if not all of them have a capped supply. But the creation of new digital currencies is not capped.
In practice what I'm suggesting is that whenever bitcoin mining becomes impossible, miners will cascade to another coin until that one becomes impossible. If new supply of each bitcoin and hypothetical altcoin2, altcoin3 is capped and trading between them is highly liquid, they become carriers for each others value.
When there are enough users and mining is capped, what will distinguish bitcoin from other capped coins? The only thing I can think of would be the number of merchants that accept bitcoin. But by then I imagine there will be 3rd party payment processors that will accept all digital currency and automatically trade it into bitcoin or usd for merchants.
Here is my question to the community -
If new digital currencies are constantly created and trading among them is highly liquid, do alt coins become a medium for bitcoin?
submitted by denversash to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

What the whales are doing with STA, spoiler alert, it's pretty damn bullish

So I've seen the rise, fall, and now stabilization of STA and decided to do some research. But why do I want to do research on a shitcoin? Because my hope is, it's not a shitcoin.
What you are doing with statera is buying a "stake" in SNX, Link, BTC, ETH, and STA through an index fund (balancer pool), if BTC moons then the index fund buys more SNX, Link, ETH, BTC, and STA, if STA moons the pool buys more SNX, Link, BTC, and ETH. If Link, ETH, SNX, and BTC all go up then the pool buys more STA forcing STA's price to go up. It's basically a way to gain exposure to all 5 assets simultaneously while balancing your risk. The interesting part is that STA is deflationary, it destroys itself with each transaction (we've already seen supply dwindle by 7 million STA), this reduces supply, increasing demand, increasing price. It's basically a leveraged index fund on BTC, ETH, Link, and SNX all projects I invest directly in and support. If we have a bull cycle STA will moon. (Disclaimer, there is no free lunch, if there is an error in the code or a back door, or if something goes awry with the balancer, this could go down in flames, they are currently auditing the code with a third party which will give us more assurance. It is also decentralized so there is less counter-party risk, as long as that decentralization holds, which the audit will help us understand. Other than a black swan catastrophic failure, this is an incredible investment on paper, if you think the other 4 assets will go up, because them going up forces the buying of STA by the balancer pool, which is basically an altruistic whale that wants STA to be less volatile while trending up in price).
There is a term in investing called accumulation phase, for us in crypto when someone like Grayscale buys 150% of all bitcoins being mined, or buys tens of millions in crypto every week, do you think they just put a market order into Coinbase Pro? No. They could do an Over The Counter (OTC) trade with an individual, they agree on a price, and a large purchase is made individual to individual (but I doubt they continue to find a bunch of bitcoin whales to give them the thousands of bitcoins they want). So what do you do? If you buy thousands of bitcoin the price will unnaturally go up as people spot your demand and inflate the order books to take your money then the price crashes once you, the biggest buyer, is out of the market, leaving you with a heavy bag. So you enter an accumulation phase, a simplified example:
Your target to buy a stock is $5-$10, you are happy buying at any price in that range. The price is at $8, so you put in a few orders and a few more 10 shares at a time so no one sees you as a whale, the prices starts going up, you have now purchased 1,000 shares and the price is $9.99, so you sell 800 shares all in one big order, everyone freaks out seeing this "huge" (huge in our example) order from presumably a whale who is spooked by market sentiment, price crashes to $6. You start buying again $20 at a time, and build your stack back up to 1,500 shares, the price has hit $8.99 and just to throw the market off (doing it again at $9.99 would be too obvious) you sell 1,000 shares. Rinse repeat. You have now bought 500 shares at the price you want where as, if you had bought 500 shares all at once, the price would have sky rocketed to $20 and then fell back to earth (say back down to $10) and you'd be holding shares at a 100% premium. This is highly simplified but hopefully gives you an idea of how accumulation works and maybe even makes you wonder if bitcoin is not going through this exact thing as we speak.
But on to Statera, so I decided to look at the whales in this space, you can check my work,go to the contract addressthen click on "holders" the list is constantly changing, addresses 10 and 11 leapfrogged address 9 and are now 9 and 10 respectively. I put the first four digits of the address so you can specifically check my work. I would say what I found is highly bullish (but make your own conjectures). First off the spread of addresses is HEALTHY, the biggest whales (top 50 address) all hold .5-2% of the supply each. The biggest holder (the developer) holds 4.6% of supply (the best I can tell you can mask your holdings and shuffle them all over so it's nearly impossible to really tell). Also there are only 1,700 people in the coin, we are still VERY early, this is more than a 50% increase in a week. Lastly the balancer pool (which balances the index) has over $350,000 in it up over 50% in the last week, this is arguably the most important metric, the liquidity here is what allows the balancing to happen and the STA price to be forced to go up, this is a huge amount of liquidity for something only held by 1,700 people, it's actually quadruple the liquidity of the trading pairs on Uniswap! Long story short the balancer pool is armed and ready to balance and support STA.
So there is no one holding 90% of supply (that we can tell) who is waiting to dump on you, we're in the early stages and seeing a lot of health in the token, and there is a lot of liquidity here. Now, the top 13 addresses:
1 (0x43) Dev Account started with all 101,000,000 then started pushing out to exchanges and balancer pool, sent 50 million right off the bat to 0x0e (balancer pool or uniswap) fun account to look at you kind of get to see the genesis of the coin.
2 (0x28) "Bought" a ton to start, hodler (weirdly sold a VERY small amount, around 10,000 of his over two million). I put bought in quotes because this account got it's STA from 0x6a, which is also where account 11 got it's from, 0x6a seems like an exchange account that people are buying from, but I would love for someone to confirm what 06xa is, balancer pool related, exchange related, developer related?)
3 (0x92) Hodler straight up, not a move, though the dump on this account came from another account that is now zero, could be a similar situation to address 6 where it is a "cold storage" for someone trading with other accounts
4 (0x13) PLAYING the exact game I showed above sell buy sell buy repeat (buys are bigger than sells)
5 (0xC2) Bought big, trickle sold, bought big, currently trickle selling (possibly PLAYING the game)
6 (0xD7) interesting one, bought 1.9 million STA for 1,354 digital Rand (What a deal!) then transferred all their STA from one account (0x67 currently no STA) to this account, now semi holding, small sells, sold 40,000 in all of 1.7 million. Not sure why he transferred could be intentional to mask moves, could be moving to hardware wallet, could be moving to exchange, unknown. Seems like a HODLER.
7 (0x7c) PLAYING THE EXACT GAME...
8 (0x0e) Contract (looks like balancer pool related)
9 (0x59) Contract (looks like balancer pool related)
10 (0xd8) PLAYING THE GAME
11 (0xb0) got a large dump from 0xc69 and is now holding (which now has 0) and if you keep tracing it back and back you get to the first account in the chain (0x6a, which also funded 0x28, which now has 615,000, and is either interacting with the balancer or trading, again please someone explain I can't), this could be a whale splitting his buckets or two large individuals who did an OTC trade, but more likely it's one person who is doing a lot of trading and accumulating. I would put PLAYING THE GAME, as the other accounts it came from are accumulating, but not completely clear. It seems like she may be using this as a "cold address" to hodl and then trading with her other account
12 (0x18db) Hodl. Accumulated hard from Uniswap buy buy buy 15, 12, and 6 days ago, hasn't moved since.
13 (0x6c) PLAYING THE GAME
So are we in a whale accumulation phase? Hard to tell, the top 10 addresses (minus 3 for the two contracts and dev) are definitely acting bullish even if they are not accumulating, it seems like 6 of the 10 are in some form of an accumulation phase and the other 4 are hodling. I do see STA as a long term hold, again it's an index fund on four of the biggest names in crypto. This will be a popular investment (if it remains legit, so far it has been highly legit). That being said, this is just 10 addresses, I don't want to spend my whole Saturday on this, if anyone wants to look at the top 50 addresses, please do! I will read and upvote your post. It was reassuring to me at least to see the top addresses are acting like bullish investors. Is the whole STA trader base in accumulation or is this an anomaly? I don't know, you can be the judge or dig deeper yourself.
The best part of this sideways action and the buying and selling of STA in the 4-6 cent range is that every trade burns coin, deflating supply, and making any later bull run even bigger. That's the genius of the coin, with every trade, with everyday, it inherently becomes more valuable (unless Link, ETH, SNX, and BTC all shit the bed, then game over, but that would be game over no matter what game you're playing).
DYOR, don't put in more than you are willing to lose, but as for me, I'm going to be following what the whales are doing and slowly accumulating in this band (4-6 cents seems like a strong buy point, 2-3 cents is an amazing buy point but it rarely dips down that low).
submitted by derelick to CryptoMoonShots [link] [comments]

What the whales are doing in STA

So I've seen the rise, fall, and now stabilization of STA and decided to do some research. But why do I want to do research on a shitcoin? Because my hope is, it's not a shitcoin.
What you are doing with statera is buying a "stake" in SNX, Link, BTC, ETH, and STA through an index fund (balancer pool), if BTC moons then the index fund buys more SNX, Link, ETH, BTC, and STA, if STA moons the pool buys more SNX, Link, BTC, and ETH. If Link, ETH, SNX, and BTC all go up then the pool buys more STA forcing STA's price to go up. It's basically a way to gain exposure to all 5 assets simultaneously while balancing your risk. The interesting part is that STA is deflationary, it destroys itself with each transaction (we've already seen supply dwindle by 7 million STA), this reduces supply, increasing demand, increasing price. It's basically a leveraged index fund on BTC, ETH, Link, and SNX all projects I invest directly in and support. If we have a bull cycle STA will moon. (Disclaimer, there is no free lunch, if there is an error in the code or a back door, or if something goes awry with the balancer, this could go down in flames, they are currently auditing the code with a third party which will give us more assurance. It is also decentralized so there is less counter-party risk, as long as that decentralization holds, which the audit will help us understand. Other than a black swan catastrophic failure, this is an incredible investment on paper, if you think the other 4 assets will go up, because them going up forces the buying of STA by the balancer pool, which is basically an altruistic whale that wants STA to be less volatile while trending up in price).
There is a term in investing called accumulation phase, for us in crypto when someone like Grayscale buys 150% of all bitcoins being mined, or buys tens of millions in crypto every week, do you think they just put a market order into Coinbase Pro? No. They could do an Over The Counter (OTC) trade with an individual, they agree on a price, and a large purchase is made individual to individual (but I doubt they continue to find a bunch of bitcoin whales to give them the thousands of bitcoins they want). So what do you do? If you buy thousands of bitcoin the price will unnaturally go up as people spot your demand and inflate the order books to take your money then the price crashes once you, the biggest buyer, is out of the market, leaving you with a heavy bag. So you enter an accumulation phase, a simplified example:
Your target to buy a stock is $5-$10, you are happy buying at any price in that range. The price is at $8, so you put in a few orders and a few more 10 shares at a time so no one sees you as a whale, the prices starts going up, you have now purchased 1,000 shares and the price is $9.99, so you sell 800 shares all in one big order, everyone freaks out seeing this "huge" (huge in our example) order from presumably a whale who is spooked by market sentiment, price crashes to $6. You start buying again $20 at a time, and build your stack back up to 1,500 shares, the price has hit $8.99 and just to throw the market off (doing it again at $9.99 would be too obvious) you sell 1,000 shares. Rinse repeat. You have now bought 500 shares at the price you want where as, if you had bought 500 shares all at once, the price would have sky rocketed to $20 and then fell back to earth (say back down to $10) and you'd be holding shares at a 100% premium. This is highly simplified but hopefully gives you an idea of how accumulation works and maybe even makes you wonder if bitcoin is not going through this exact thing as we speak.
But on to Statera, so I decided to look at the whales in this space, you can check my work, go to the contract address then click on "holders" the list is constantly changing, addresses 10 and 11 leapfrogged address 9 and are now 9 and 10 respectively. I put the first four digits of the address so you can specifically check my work. I would say what I found is highly bullish (but make your own conjectures). First off the spread of addresses is HEALTHY, the biggest whales (top 50 address) all hold .5-2% of the supply each. The biggest holder (the developer) holds 4.6% of supply (the best I can tell you can mask your holdings and shuffle them all over so it's nearly impossible to really tell). So there is no one holding 90% of supply (that we can tell) who is waiting to dump on you. Top 13 addresses:
1 (0x43) Dev Account started with all 101,000,000 then started pushing out to exchanges and balancer pool, sent 50 million right off the bat to 0x0e (balancer pool or uniswap) fun account to look at you kind of get to see the genesis of the coin.
2 (0x28) "Bought" a ton to start, hodler (weirdly sold a VERY small amount, around 10,000 of his over two million). I put bought in quotes because this account got it's STA from 0x6a, which is also where account 11 got it's from, 0x6a seems like an exchange account that people are buying from, but I would love for someone to confirm what 06xa is, balancer pool related, exchange related, developer related?)
3 (0x92) Hodler straight up, not a move
4 (0x13) PLAYING the exact game I showed above sell buy sell buy repeat (buys are bigger than sells)
5 (0xC2) Bought big, trickle sold, bought big, currently trickle selling (possibly PLAYING the game)
6 (0xD7) interesting one, bought 1.9 million STA for 1,354 digital Rand (What a deal!) then transferred all their STA from one account (0x67 currently no STA) to this account, now semi holding, small sells, sold 40,000 in all of 1.7 million. Not sure why he transferred could be intentional to mask moves, could be moving to hardware wallet, could be moving to exchange, unknown. Seems like a HODLER.
7 (0x7c) PLAYING THE EXAT GAME...
8 (0x0e) Contract (looks like balancer pool related)
9 (0x59) Contract (looks like balancer pool related)
10 (0xd8) PLAYING THE GAME
11 (0xb0) got a large dump from 0xc69 and is now holding (which now has 0) and if you keep tracing it back and back you get to the first account in the chain (0x6a, which also funded 0x28, which now has 615,000, and is either interacting with the balancer or trading, again please someone explain I can't), this could be a whale splitting his buckets or two large individuals who did an OTC trade, but more likely it's one person who is doing a lot of trading and accumulating. I would put PLAYING THE GAME, as the other accounts it came from are accumulating, but not completely clear. It seems like she may be using this as a "cold address" to hodl and then trading with her other account
12 (0x18db) Hodl. Accumulated hard from Uniswap buy buy buy 15, 12, and 6 days ago, hasn't moved since.
13 (0x6c) PLAYING THE GAME
So are we in a whale accumulation phase? Hard to tell, the top 10 addresses (minus 3 for the two contracts and dev) are definitely acting bullish even if they are not accumulating, it seems like 6 of the 10 are in some form of an accumulation phase and the other 4 are hodling. I do see STA as a long term hold, again it's an index fund on four of the biggest names in crypto. This will be a popular investment (if it remains legit, so far it has been highly legit). That being said, this is just 10 addresses, I don't want to spend my whole Saturday on this, if anyone wants to look at the top 50 addresses, please do! I will read and upvote your post. It was reassuring to me at least to see the top addresses are acting like bullish investors. Is the whole STA trader base in accumulation or is this an anomaly? I don't know, you can be the judge or dig deeper yourself.
The best part of this sideways action and the buying and selling of STA in the 4-6 cent range is that every trade burns coin, deflating supply, and making any later bull run even bigger. That's the genius of the coin, with every trade, with everyday, it inherently becomes more valuable (unless Link, ETH, SNX, and BTC all shit the bed, then game over, but that would be game over no matter what game you're playing).
DYOR, don't put in more than you are willing to lose, but as for me, I'm going to be following what the whales are doing and slowly accumulating in this band (4-6 cents seems like a strong buy point, 2-3 cents is an amazing buy point but it rarely dips down that low).
submitted by derelick to ethtrader [link] [comments]

THE RIGHT TO ENCRYPTION

TREATY ON THE RIGHT OF DIGITAL INTEGRITY By Mario Rocha, April 2020.
Any type of society belonging to a democratic state of law, whose interactions have spread in a digitally open society, will inherently be expanding the sphere and legal personality of each and every one of its members. Therefore, the right to the protection of digital integrity, together with the rights to physical and emotional integrity, is part of the human rights, fundamental and individual guarantees, of the human being.
The right to the digital integrity of the human being, makes it possible to claim the rights to privacy in informative self-determination, autonomy and freedom of choice. The right to digital integrity becomes a general justification for all data protection principles and rules, changing the purpose and legal interpretations to the protection of the digital individual, rather than just protecting data.
Guaranteeing the protection of the right to digital privacy is only possible through freedom of use and the exercise of the act of encrypting. Exercising the right to encrypt is the only act that guarantees us digital enjoyment of both the rights of privacy and the rights of freedom of expression; since in the act of encrypting we confer privacy on free expression. Privacy gives us the power to selectively reveal ourselves to the entire world, thereby guaranteeing our identity in any type of publication, communication, exchange and transaction. These fundamental rights are not negotiable, they do not admit weighting between them or against others. They are fundamental to freedom in a digitally open society.
The power of these rights is only conferred to those who defend them, through their practice and use, in accordance with a contract of social adherence, open to the entire world and for a digital society that knows no borders or delimitations, so a state finds no use; where the transfer of property and value only involves the beneficiaries, so no institution or trusted intermediaries are necessary; where chaos is actively regulated by each and every one of its members, so any type of government finds no purpose.
This social and economic revolution is inherent in a permanently digital society, and integrates its followers in an individual, free, secret act of common interest in the action of encryption. Guaranteeing digital integrity by permanently exercising the right to encrypt all digital interaction, extinguishes all digital types of: slavery, violence, repression, coercion, persecution, discrimination and xenophobia; therefore, the enjoyment of digital integrity and your digital rights are guaranteed to: Wealth, Security, Privacy, Equality, Suffrage, Freedom of expression and Freedom of communication.
Just as states guarantee their right to privacy, freedom, autonomy and existence through governmental and institutional control of their currency, in the same way a digitally open, free and autonomous society has the right to guarantee their autarchy, autonomy and existence, through a digital economy based on intellectual resources inherent to the digital society itself, all these resources, such as their equivalence, representation and exchange, must be through a HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY coin.
A HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY must be decentralized to the states, governments, institutions and individuals; Be useful without the need for trusted intermediaries; Be autonomous in its emission and destruction; Be deflationary through finite quantitative tightening; Be from public records and verifications; And be completely irreversible in your transactions and proof of double spending.
The active coexistence of both currencies does not threaten their own stocks, since in their issues, contents, forms and profits, they find different purposes. While a FIAT currency will always be necessary to continue with the social contract between the states and their citizens, a HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY will always be necessary to establish and continue the social contract between digital individuals.
For a digital economy of intellectual resources to be incorruptible and guarantee its continuity and existence in freedom, autarky and autonomy; It will not admit, nor will it recognize in any way, any type of financial instruments related to options, parity, collaterals, titles, bonds, futures, synthetics and derivatives; Nor does it admit or recognize in any way, any type of financial mechanism related to the policies of fractional reserve banking, expansion of deposits and leverage. In this way it is guaranteed that the creation and generation of new and own wealth will only be alone and through effort and work, applied to time, the latter being the most valuable asset in the entire world.
The digital integrity in all its forms and all its contents, must guarantee the security of the encryption, normalizing that all types of encryption must be from HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY, it must be composed and integrated, by data authentication only by the beneficiary and through the use of end-to-end encryption multilayers, with asymmetric elliptic curve cryptography or higher. Digital integrity in all its forms and content, must guarantee freedom, equality, privacy and security, in the access and use of individuals to the HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY, normalizing that the beneficiary is the only one who has access and the right to the creation, administration and custody of your own public and private keys and their derivations.
Digital integrity in forms and content of digital privacy, must guarantee equality, privacy and security, in the protection of digital data, normalizing that all programming codes and data transfer protocols, enable communications, exchanges, transactions, own records and digital identities; are carried out with HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY.
The digital integrity in forms and contents of digital communications, must guarantee the equality, security and privacy of internet users, normalizing that all kinds of internet connections made through the OS, APPS and BROWSERS, are made alone and through the TOR network or through VPNs with HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY.
The digital integrity in forms and content of data protection, must guarantee the equality, privacy and security of legal persons, normalizing that all kinds of interactions and digital exchanges, messaging, communications and streaming, are carried out alone and through networks P2P with hard encryption. In the same way, normalizing the sending and receiving of e-mails using digital signatures and encryption with HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY or PGP.
The digital integrity in forms and contents of the digital consumer, must guarantee the security, equality and privacy of software consumers, normalizing that the public offer of any type of APPS and OS, is conditioned to the publication of all the integral programming code from the APPS and OS, in any public repository of OPEN SOURCE and FREE SOFTWARE.
The digital integrity in forms and digital mercantile content, must guarantee the equality, security and privacy of digital transactions, normalizing that all types of transmission of value and digital property are made possible through a HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY or BITCOIN; And establish all kinds of contractual relationships, agreements, files and registration, alone and through the SMART CONTRACT in BLOCKCHAIN.
The digital integrity in digital author forms and contents, must guarantee the equality and security of the digital author registers, normalizing that all kinds of intellectual resources are made possible to be published, registered and licensed, under the desired concepts of FREE CONTENT, OPEN CONTENT, COPYLEFT, CREATIVE COMMONS and GNU in GPL AND GFDL.
Both the democratic states of law, which do not include in their legal framework, the fundamental rights to the protection of digital integrity; As individuals, they do not permanently exercise their right to encrypt. They will abandon each and every one of the members who extend their interactions to a digitally open society, to be permanently classified, guarded, controlled, manipulated, monetized and commercialized, by any type of: states, governments, authorities, corporations and legal persons; through their own devices, communications, applications, searches, publications, consumption, registration accounts and any type of health records and digital identity.
submitted by pimpoloo to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
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05-16 08:14 - 'Can't the same be said for any industry though? All industries use energy and some of that energy will inherently come from fossil fuels. If burning coal is the cheaper option vs. renewables, then 9/10 companies will choose coal...' by /u/sc0obyd0o removed from /r/news within 9-19min

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Can't the same be said for any industry though? All industries use energy and some of that energy will inherently come from fossil fuels. If burning coal is the cheaper option vs. renewables, then 9/10 companies will choose coal, irrespective of whether the company has anything to do with bitcoins.
If free / low-cost renewable solutions become cheaper than coal, then naturally companies will switch away from coal, bitcoin mining is no different. The value of the currency is not intrinsically tied to dirty energy. Bitcoin miners will go where it's cheapest to mine, regardless of energy type.
Although I do see your point on the Visa vs. Bitcoin energy used per transaction argument, most of us, myself included, get along fine with Visa and Paypal which work 99% of the time.
I think the trade off would be that a Bitcoin transaction is arguably worth "more" since it's censorship free and deflationary.
In 2011 PayPal freezes WikiLeak's account due to them publishing military documents & videos outlining the civilian casualties in the Afghan war.
Bitcoin saved WikiLeaks from collapsing since its impossible to "block" a Bitcoin transaction or "freeze" a Bitcoin account. Bitcoin solves the double-spend problem in computer science meaning that anyone can receive bitcoin without the need for a middle man ( Paypal / Visa). No one can even attempt to censor you since there is no middle man to pressure.
[[link]2
Of course, most of us have no need for an unstoppable, non-confiscatable, supplied capped type of money. But for more libertarian minded folks that believe freedom of speech includes money and that perhaps money and state should be divided; then Bitcoin is the perfect solution.
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Author: sc0obyd0o
1: ww**forb***c*m/site*/*ogerhu*n**2019/04/26*how-*itco*n*a**-*i*ile*k*-sav*d-e*ch-*the#6fb9423474a* 2: *w***orbe***om/s*tes*roger**ang*2019/04/26**ow-bi*coin-and**ikilea*s-saved*eac**o*h*#*f*9423474a5*^^1
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Why Global Deflation May Not Be Bad News for Bitcoin

Contrary to expectations, bitcoin could see a positive performance during a possible bout of global deflation if it acts not just as an investment asset, but as a medium of exchange and a perceived safe haven like gold. The top cryptocurrency by market value is widely considered to be a hedge against inflation because its supply is capped at 21 million and its monetary policy is pre-programmed to cut the pace of supply expansion by 50 percent every four years. As such, one may consider any deflationary collapse as a price-bearish development for bitcoin. Talk of deflation began earlier this month after the U.S. reported massive job losses due to the coronavirus outbreak. The prospects of a deflationary collapse have strengthened with this week’s oil price crash. “The oil price rout will send a deflationary wave through the global economy,” tweeted popular macro analyst Holger Zschaepitz on Tuesday. Read more: First Mover: What the Oil Price Collapse Means for Bitcoin’s Halving Valuation Cash typically becomes king during deflation because the drop in the general price levels boosts the monetary unit’s purchasing power, or the ability to purchase goods and services. “Unlike inflation, when people try to get out of the dollar because it’s losing value, during deflation people are more comfortable with the dollar because its value is going up,” said Erick Pinos, ecosystem lead for the Americas at the public blockchain and distributed collaboration platform Ontology. The rush for cash, however, may not have a substantially negative impact on bitcoin’s price because deflation would also boost the purchasing power of the cryptocurrency. “While the price per coin may stagnate during a period of aggressive economic deflation, the inherent buying power of the currency will actually rise, possibly quite significantly,” said Brandon Mintz, CEO of the bitcoin ATM provider Bitcoin Depot. As time goes on and people become more comfortable with digital assets, the average person begins to see Bitcoin as a legitimate viable alternative to gold.** The uptick in the purchasing power will likely draw greater demand for bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency is already used as means of payment. “Hundreds of thousands of businesses, brands and merchants do accept the ‘digital gold’ as payment, and thousands more every day are realizing the benefits of diversifying their revenue stream and accepting bitcoin as payment for their goods and services,” said Derek Muhney, director of sales and marketing at Coinsource, the world’s leader in Bitcoin ATMs. Moreover, the cryptocurrency’s appeal as a medium of exchange is likely to continue strengthening with the growing prevalence of technology in consumers’ everyday lives caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
##Digital gold ##
Ever since its inception, bitcoin has been dubbed “digital gold.” Like the yellow metal, the cryptocurrency is durable, fungible, divisible, recognizable and scarce. Both assets share features that fulfill Aristotle’s call for a currency to be practical and functional. Bitcoin has actual utility as the means of payment, which gold lacks, according to Coinsource’s Muhney. “As time goes on and people become more comfortable with digital assets, the average person begins to see Bitcoin as a legitimate viable alternative to gold. Thus, it’s reasonable to assume that during a period of deflation bitcoin would perform well like gold has in the past,” said Erick Pinos, America’s ecosystem lead at the public blockchain and distributed collaboration platform Ontology. Read more: Looking for a Safe Haven Digital Asset? Try Gold Hence, gold’s performance during the previous bouts of deflation could serve as a guide for bitcoin investors. Historical data shows gold performs well during deflation, which includes a sharp rise in financial stress and increased risk of corporate defaults; highly levered companies tend to go bust during deflation because their revenues fall while their debt service payments remain the same. Of course, gold’s shine is particularly bright during periods of inflation as well. As in periods of sizable deflation, inflation brings a set of price distortions that shake-up income statements and economies. A commonly-used measure of stress is the “Ted spread” or the difference between the three-month U.S. interbank rate and the three-month T-Bill rate. Ted SpreadSource: St. Louis Fed Research“Massive spikes in the Ted spread in the 1970s were accompanied by a sharp rise in gold. The Ted spread also rose sharply in the early 1980s; in 1987 in the wake of the stock market crash and during the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 – both also periods of stronger gold prices,” according to Oxford Economics’ research note. Gold’s performance in stress periodsSource: Oxford ResearchThe real or inflation-adjusted price of gold rose an average 33 percent per annum in the 1970s, 18 percent in 1980s and 15.8 percent in 2000. Underscoring all of the scenarios is that a sudden rise in economic stress usually fuels a global dash for cash, forcing investors to sell everything from stocks to gold. However, once economic uncertainty starts settling, people again start looking for safe havens. “During the Great Recession, while gold initially declined alongside other equities, it found its footing and rallied faster than stocks recovered,” Ontology’s Pinos told CoinDesk. The Ted spread spiked as high as 4.6 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in August 2008. Gold fell from $920 to $680 per troy ounce in the August to October period, as investors treated the yellow metal as a source of liquidity, but still ended that year with 5.5 percent gains. More importantly, it rallied by 24 percent in 2009 and went on to hit a record high above $1,900 in 2011. Read more: First Mover: Bitcoin Jumps as Fed Assets Top $6.5T and Traders Focus on Halving The yellow metal’s recent price gyrations suggest history may be repeating itself. As the Ted spread rose from 0.11 to 1.42 in the four weeks to March 27, gold fell from $1,700 to $1,450 yet is now trading near $1,725 per ounce, having hit a 7-year high of $1,747 ten days ago. Bitcoin, too, was treated as a source of liquidity last month, as evidenced from the near 40 percent drop to levels under $4,000 seen on March 12. Since then, however, the cryptocurrency has risen by nearly 85 percent to $7,500. If gold’s historical data and the recent market activity is a guide, then the path of least resistance for bitcoin appears to be on the higher side.
##Unprecedented stimulus to undermine fiat currencies ##
Both the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have unleashed massive amounts of liquidity into the system over the past few weeks to contain the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Notably, the Fed is running an open-ended asset purchase program and its balance sheet has already risen to record highs above $6.5 trillion. Meanwhile, central banks from New Zealand to Canada have slashed rates to zero and have recently announced bond purchase programs. What’s more, the amount of fiscal stimulus announced by 22 countries in March is equivalent to 75 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP), according to JPMorgan. However, most governments and central banks appear to have run out of ammo. Hence, if the coronavirus pandemic continues to spread or leads to corporate defaults, investors may lose trust in traditional finance and look for alternatives like bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. Moody’s Analytics recently warned of the heightened risk of corporate defaults in the oil and gas sector across the globe, and weakness in entertainment and leisure giving way to pressure on consumer durables. “The willingness to fight deflation should bode well for bitcoin,” said Richard Rosenblum, head of trading at GSR. Meanwhile, Ashish Singhal, CEO and founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinswitch.co, said, “In a deflationary scenario, the chances of negative interest rates are high, and users would want to move their existing assets into more stable assets like bitcoin to prevent loss in their asset value.” Interest rates are already set below zero across Europe and in Japan and are hovering at or near zero in other advanced countries. Further, with central banks willing to do whatever it takes to defeat deflation, the real yield or inflation-adjusted returns on bonds are likely to remain negative or meagerly positive at best. As a result, zero-yielding assets like gold and bitcoin may attract more buyers. Bank of America’s analysts noted earlier this week that the stimulus frenzy amid the coronavirus pandemic would put pressure on the currencies and send gold to $3,000 by October 2021. While bitcoin could perform well during deflation, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have seldom tracked macro developments on a consistent basis in the past. “Blockchain-based currencies are really their own beasts,” said Bitcoin Depot CEO Brandon Mitz. DisclosureRead MoreThe leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.
Source: https://thedailyblockchain.news/2020/05/24/why-global-deflation-may-not-be-bad-news-for-bitcoin/
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THE RIGHT OF DIGITAL INTEGRITY

TREATY ON THE RIGHT OF DIGITAL INTEGRITY By Mario Rocha, April 2020.
Any type of society belonging to a democratic state of law, whose interactions have spread in a digitally open society, will inherently be expanding the sphere and legal personality of each and every one of its members. Therefore, the right to the protection of digital integrity, together with the rights to physical and emotional integrity, is part of the human rights, fundamental and individual guarantees, of the human being.
The right to the digital integrity of the human being, makes it possible to claim the rights to privacy in informative self-determination, autonomy and freedom of choice. The right to digital integrity becomes a general justification for all data protection principles and rules, changing the purpose and legal interpretations to the protection of the digital individual, rather than just protecting data.
Guaranteeing the protection of the right to digital privacy is only possible through freedom of use and the exercise of the act of encrypting. Exercising the right to encrypt is the only act that guarantees us digital enjoyment of both the rights of privacy and the rights of freedom of expression; since in the act of encrypting we confer privacy on free expression. Privacy gives us the power to selectively reveal ourselves to the entire world, thereby guaranteeing our identity in any type of publication, communication, exchange and transaction. These fundamental rights are not negotiable, they do not admit weighting between them or against others. They are fundamental to freedom in a digitally open society.
The power of these rights is only conferred to those who defend them, through their practice and use, in accordance with a contract of social adherence, open to the entire world and for a digital society that knows no borders or delimitations, so a state finds no use; where the transfer of property and value only involves the beneficiaries, so no institution or trusted intermediaries are necessary; where chaos is actively regulated by each and every one of its members, so any type of government finds no purpose.
This social and economic revolution is inherent in a permanently digital society, and integrates its followers in an individual, free, secret act of common interest in the action of encryption. Guaranteeing digital integrity by permanently exercising the right to encrypt all digital interaction, extinguishes all digital types of: slavery, violence, repression, coercion, persecution, discrimination and xenophobia; therefore, the enjoyment of digital integrity and your digital rights are guaranteed to: Wealth, Security, Privacy, Equality, Suffrage, Freedom of expression and Freedom of communication.
Just as states guarantee their right to privacy, freedom, autonomy and existence through governmental and institutional control of their currency, in the same way a digitally open, free and autonomous society has the right to guarantee their autarchy, autonomy and existence, through a digital economy based on intellectual resources inherent to the digital society itself, all these resources, such as their equivalence, representation and exchange, must be through a HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY coin.
A HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY must be decentralized to the states, governments, institutions and individuals; Be useful without the need for trusted intermediaries; Be autonomous in its emission and destruction; Be deflationary through finite quantitative tightening; Be from public records and verifications; And be completely irreversible in your transactions and proof of double spending.
The active coexistence of both currencies does not threaten their own stocks, since in their issues, contents, forms and profits, they find different purposes. While a FIAT currency will always be necessary to continue with the social contract between the states and their citizens, a HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY will always be necessary to establish and continue the social contract between digital individuals.
For a digital economy of intellectual resources to be incorruptible and guarantee its continuity and existence in freedom, autarky and autonomy; It will not admit, nor will it recognize in any way, any type of financial instruments related to options, parity, collaterals, titles, bonds, futures, synthetics and derivatives; Nor does it admit or recognize in any way, any type of financial mechanism related to the policies of fractional reserve banking, expansion of deposits and leverage. In this way it is guaranteed that the creation and generation of new and own wealth will only be alone and through effort and work, applied to time, the latter being the most valuable asset in the entire world.
The digital integrity in all its forms and all its contents, must guarantee the security of the encryption, normalizing that all types of encryption must be from HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY, it must be composed and integrated, by data authentication only by the beneficiary and through the use of end-to-end encryption multilayers, with asymmetric elliptic curve cryptography or higher. Digital integrity in all its forms and content, must guarantee freedom, equality, privacy and security, in the access and use of individuals to the HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY, normalizing that the beneficiary is the only one who has access and the right to the creation, administration and custody of your own public and private keys and their derivations.
Digital integrity in forms and content of digital privacy, must guarantee equality, privacy and security, in the protection of digital data, normalizing that all programming codes and data transfer protocols, enable communications, exchanges, transactions, own records and digital identities; are carried out with HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY.
The digital integrity in forms and contents of digital communications, must guarantee the equality, security and privacy of internet users, normalizing that all kinds of internet connections made through the OS, APPS and BROWSERS, are made alone and through the TOR network or through VPNs with HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY.
The digital integrity in forms and content of data protection, must guarantee the equality, privacy and security of legal persons, normalizing that all kinds of interactions and digital exchanges, messaging, communications and streaming, are carried out alone and through networks P2P with hard encryption. In the same way, normalizing the sending and receiving of e-mails using digital signatures and encryption with HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY or PGP.
The digital integrity in forms and contents of the digital consumer, must guarantee the security, equality and privacy of software consumers, normalizing that the public offer of any type of APPS and OS, is conditioned to the publication of all the integral programming code from the APPS and OS, in any public repository of OPEN SOURCE and FREE SOFTWARE.
The digital integrity in forms and digital mercantile content, must guarantee the equality, security and privacy of digital transactions, normalizing that all types of transmission of value and digital property are made possible through a HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY or BITCOIN; And establish all kinds of contractual relationships, agreements, files and registration, alone and through the SMART CONTRACT in BLOCKCHAIN.
The digital integrity in digital author forms and contents, must guarantee the equality and security of the digital author registers, normalizing that all kinds of intellectual resources are made possible to be published, registered and licensed, under the desired concepts of FREE CONTENT, OPEN CONTENT, COPYLEFT, CREATIVE COMMONS and GNU in GPL AND GFDL.
Both the democratic states of law, which do not include in their legal framework, the fundamental rights to the protection of digital integrity; As individuals, they do not permanently exercise their right to encrypt. They will abandon each and every one of the members who extend their interactions to a digitally open society, to be permanently classified, guarded, controlled, manipulated, monetized and commercialized, by any type of: states, governments, authorities, corporations and legal persons; through their own devices, communications, applications, searches, publications, consumption, registration accounts and any type of health records and digital identity.
submitted by pimpoloo to RightToEncryption [link] [comments]

Digital integrity

TREATY ON THE RIGHT OF DIGITAL INTEGRITY By Mario Rocha, April 2020.
Any type of society belonging to a democratic state of law, whose interactions have spread in a digitally open society, will inherently be expanding the sphere and legal personality of each and every one of its members. Therefore, the right to the protection of digital integrity, together with the rights to physical and emotional integrity, is part of the human rights, fundamental and individual guarantees, of the human being.
The right to the digital integrity of the human being, makes it possible to claim the rights to privacy in informative self-determination, autonomy and freedom of choice. The right to digital integrity becomes a general justification for all data protection principles and rules, changing the purpose and legal interpretations to the protection of the digital individual, rather than just protecting data.
Guaranteeing the protection of the right to digital privacy is only possible through freedom of use and the exercise of the act of encrypting. Exercising the right to encrypt is the only act that guarantees us digital enjoyment of both the rights of privacy and the rights of freedom of expression; since in the act of encrypting we confer privacy on free expression. Privacy gives us the power to selectively reveal ourselves to the entire world, thereby guaranteeing our identity in any type of publication, communication, exchange and transaction. These fundamental rights are not negotiable, they do not admit weighting between them or against others. They are fundamental to freedom in a digitally open society.
The power of these rights is only conferred to those who defend them, through their practice and use, in accordance with a contract of social adherence, open to the entire world and for a digital society that knows no borders or delimitations, so a state finds no use; where the transfer of property and value only involves the beneficiaries, so no institution or trusted intermediaries are necessary; where chaos is actively regulated by each and every one of its members, so any type of government finds no purpose.
This social and economic revolution is inherent in a permanently digital society, and integrates its followers in an individual, free, secret act of common interest in the action of encryption. Guaranteeing digital integrity by permanently exercising the right to encrypt all digital interaction, extinguishes all digital types of: slavery, violence, repression, coercion, persecution, discrimination and xenophobia; therefore, the enjoyment of digital integrity and your digital rights are guaranteed to: Wealth, Security, Privacy, Equality, Suffrage, Freedom of expression and Freedom of communication.
Just as states guarantee their right to privacy, freedom, autonomy and existence through governmental and institutional control of their currency, in the same way a digitally open, free and autonomous society has the right to guarantee their autarchy, autonomy and existence, through a digital economy based on intellectual resources inherent to the digital society itself, all these resources, such as their equivalence, representation and exchange, must be through a HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY coin.
A HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY must be decentralized to the states, governments, institutions and individuals; Be useful without the need for trusted intermediaries; Be autonomous in its emission and destruction; Be deflationary through finite quantitative tightening; Be from public records and verifications; And be completely irreversible in your transactions and proof of double spending.
The active coexistence of both currencies does not threaten their own stocks, since in their issues, contents, forms and profits, they find different purposes. While a FIAT currency will always be necessary to continue with the social contract between the states and their citizens, a HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY will always be necessary to establish and continue the social contract between digital individuals.
For a digital economy of intellectual resources to be incorruptible and guarantee its continuity and existence in freedom, autarky and autonomy; It will not admit, nor will it recognize in any way, any type of financial instruments related to options, parity, collaterals, titles, bonds, futures, synthetics and derivatives; Nor does it admit or recognize in any way, any type of financial mechanism related to the policies of fractional reserve banking, expansion of deposits and leverage. In this way it is guaranteed that the creation and generation of new and own wealth will only be alone and through effort and work, applied to time, the latter being the most valuable asset in the entire world.
The digital integrity in all its forms and all its contents, must guarantee the security of the encryption, normalizing that all types of encryption must be from HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY, it must be composed and integrated, by data authentication only by the beneficiary and through the use of end-to-end encryption multilayers, with asymmetric elliptic curve cryptography or higher. Digital integrity in all its forms and content, must guarantee freedom, equality, privacy and security, in the access and use of individuals to the HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY, normalizing that the beneficiary is the only one who has access and the right to the creation, administration and custody of your own public and private keys and their derivations.
Digital integrity in forms and content of digital privacy, must guarantee equality, privacy and security, in the protection of digital data, normalizing that all programming codes and data transfer protocols, enable communications, exchanges, transactions, own records and digital identities; are carried out with HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY.
The digital integrity in forms and contents of digital communications, must guarantee the equality, security and privacy of internet users, normalizing that all kinds of internet connections made through the OS, APPS and BROWSERS, are made alone and through the TOR network or through VPNs with HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY.
The digital integrity in forms and content of data protection, must guarantee the equality, privacy and security of legal persons, normalizing that all kinds of interactions and digital exchanges, messaging, communications and streaming, are carried out alone and through networks P2P with hard encryption. In the same way, normalizing the sending and receiving of e-mails using digital signatures and encryption with HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY or PGP.
The digital integrity in forms and contents of the digital consumer, must guarantee the security, equality and privacy of software consumers, normalizing that the public offer of any type of APPS and OS, is conditioned to the publication of all the integral programming code from the APPS and OS, in any public repository of OPEN SOURCE and FREE SOFTWARE.
The digital integrity in forms and digital mercantile content, must guarantee the equality, security and privacy of digital transactions, normalizing that all types of transmission of value and digital property are made possible through a HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY or BITCOIN; And establish all kinds of contractual relationships, agreements, files and registration, alone and through the SMART CONTRACT in BLOCKCHAIN.
The digital integrity in digital author forms and contents, must guarantee the equality and security of the digital author registers, normalizing that all kinds of intellectual resources are made possible to be published, registered and licensed, under the desired concepts of FREE CONTENT, OPEN CONTENT, COPYLEFT, CREATIVE COMMONS and GNU in GPL AND GFDL.
Both the democratic states of law, which do not include in their legal framework, the fundamental rights to the protection of digital integrity; As individuals, they do not permanently exercise their right to encrypt. They will abandon each and every one of the members who extend their interactions to a digitally open society, to be permanently classified, guarded, controlled, manipulated, monetized and commercialized, by any type of: states, governments, authorities, corporations and legal persons; through their own devices, communications, applications, searches, publications, consumption, registration accounts and any type of health records and digital identity.
submitted by pimpoloo to humanRightsLiberties [link] [comments]

THE RIGHT OF DIGITAL INTEGRITY

TREATY ON THE RIGHT OF DIGITAL INTEGRITY By Mario Rocha, April 2020.
Any type of society belonging to a democratic state of law, whose interactions have spread in a digitally open society, will inherently be expanding the sphere and legal personality of each and every one of its members. Therefore, the right to the protection of digital integrity, together with the rights to physical and emotional integrity, is part of the human rights, fundamental and individual guarantees, of the human being.
The right to the digital integrity of the human being, makes it possible to claim the rights to privacy in informative self-determination, autonomy and freedom of choice. The right to digital integrity becomes a general justification for all data protection principles and rules, changing the purpose and legal interpretations to the protection of the digital individual, rather than just protecting data.
Guaranteeing the protection of the right to digital privacy is only possible through freedom of use and the exercise of the act of encrypting. Exercising the right to encrypt is the only act that guarantees us digital enjoyment of both the rights of privacy and the rights of freedom of expression; since in the act of encrypting we confer privacy on free expression. Privacy gives us the power to selectively reveal ourselves to the entire world, thereby guaranteeing our identity in any type of publication, communication, exchange and transaction. These fundamental rights are not negotiable, they do not admit weighting between them or against others. They are fundamental to freedom in a digitally open society.
The power of these rights is only conferred to those who defend them, through their practice and use, in accordance with a contract of social adherence, open to the entire world and for a digital society that knows no borders or delimitations, so a state finds no use; where the transfer of property and value only involves the beneficiaries, so no institution or trusted intermediaries are necessary; where chaos is actively regulated by each and every one of its members, so any type of government finds no purpose.
This social and economic revolution is inherent in a permanently digital society, and integrates its followers in an individual, free, secret act of common interest in the action of encryption. Guaranteeing digital integrity by permanently exercising the right to encrypt all digital interaction, extinguishes all digital types of: slavery, violence, repression, coercion, persecution, discrimination and xenophobia; therefore, the enjoyment of digital integrity and your digital rights are guaranteed to: Wealth, Security, Privacy, Equality, Suffrage, Freedom of expression and Freedom of communication.
Just as states guarantee their right to privacy, freedom, autonomy and existence through governmental and institutional control of their currency, in the same way a digitally open, free and autonomous society has the right to guarantee their autarchy, autonomy and existence, through a digital economy based on intellectual resources inherent to the digital society itself, all these resources, such as their equivalence, representation and exchange, must be through a HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY coin.
A HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY must be decentralized to the states, governments, institutions and individuals; Be useful without the need for trusted intermediaries; Be autonomous in its emission and destruction; Be deflationary through finite quantitative tightening; Be from public records and verifications; And be completely irreversible in your transactions and proof of double spending.
The active coexistence of both currencies does not threaten their own stocks, since in their issues, contents, forms and profits, they find different purposes. While a FIAT currency will always be necessary to continue with the social contract between the states and their citizens, a HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY will always be necessary to establish and continue the social contract between digital individuals.
For a digital economy of intellectual resources to be incorruptible and guarantee its continuity and existence in freedom, autarky and autonomy; It will not admit, nor will it recognize in any way, any type of financial instruments related to options, parity, collaterals, titles, bonds, futures, synthetics and derivatives; Nor does it admit or recognize in any way, any type of financial mechanism related to the policies of fractional reserve banking, expansion of deposits and leverage. In this way it is guaranteed that the creation and generation of new and own wealth will only be alone and through effort and work, applied to time, the latter being the most valuable asset in the entire world.
The digital integrity in all its forms and all its contents, must guarantee the security of the encryption, normalizing that all types of encryption must be from HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY, it must be composed and integrated, by data authentication only by the beneficiary and through the use of end-to-end encryption multilayers, with asymmetric elliptic curve cryptography or higher. Digital integrity in all its forms and content, must guarantee freedom, equality, privacy and security, in the access and use of individuals to the HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY, normalizing that the beneficiary is the only one who has access and the right to the creation, administration and custody of your own public and private keys and their derivations.
Digital integrity in forms and content of digital privacy, must guarantee equality, privacy and security, in the protection of digital data, normalizing that all programming codes and data transfer protocols, enable communications, exchanges, transactions, own records and digital identities; are carried out with HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY.
The digital integrity in forms and contents of digital communications, must guarantee the equality, security and privacy of internet users, normalizing that all kinds of internet connections made through the OS, APPS and BROWSERS, are made alone and through the TOR network or through VPNs with HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY.
The digital integrity in forms and content of data protection, must guarantee the equality, privacy and security of legal persons, normalizing that all kinds of interactions and digital exchanges, messaging, communications and streaming, are carried out alone and through networks P2P with hard encryption. In the same way, normalizing the sending and receiving of e-mails using digital signatures and encryption with HARD CRYPTOGRAPHY or PGP.
The digital integrity in forms and contents of the digital consumer, must guarantee the security, equality and privacy of software consumers, normalizing that the public offer of any type of APPS and OS, is conditioned to the publication of all the integral programming code from the APPS and OS, in any public repository of OPEN SOURCE and FREE SOFTWARE.
The digital integrity in forms and digital mercantile content, must guarantee the equality, security and privacy of digital transactions, normalizing that all types of transmission of value and digital property are made possible through a HARD CRYPTOCURRENCY or BITCOIN; And establish all kinds of contractual relationships, agreements, files and registration, alone and through the SMART CONTRACT in BLOCKCHAIN.
The digital integrity in digital author forms and contents, must guarantee the equality and security of the digital author registers, normalizing that all kinds of intellectual resources are made possible to be published, registered and licensed, under the desired concepts of FREE CONTENT, OPEN CONTENT, COPYLEFT, CREATIVE COMMONS and GNU in GPL AND GFDL.
Both the democratic states of law, which do not include in their legal framework, the fundamental rights to the protection of digital integrity; As individuals, they do not permanently exercise their right to encrypt. They will abandon each and every one of the members who extend their interactions to a digitally open society, to be permanently classified, guarded, controlled, manipulated, monetized and commercialized, by any type of: states, governments, authorities, corporations and legal persons; through their own devices, communications, applications, searches, publications, consumption, registration accounts and any type of health records and digital identity.
submitted by pimpoloo to Gofis [link] [comments]

Why Global Deflation May Not Be Bad News for Bitcoin

Contrary to expectations, bitcoin could see a positive performance during a possible bout of global deflation if it acts not just as an investment asset, but as a medium of exchange and a perceived safe haven like gold.
The top cryptocurrency by market value is widely considered to be a hedge against inflation because its supply is capped at 21 million and its monetary policy is pre-programmed to cut the pace of supply expansion by 50 percent every four years.
As such, one may consider any deflationary collapse as a price-bearish development for bitcoin. Talk of deflation began earlier this month after the U.S. reported massive job losses due to the coronavirus outbreak. The prospects of a deflationary collapse have strengthened with this week’s oil price crash.
“The oil price rout will send a deflationary wave through the global economy,” tweeted popular macro analyst Holger Zschaepitz on Tuesday.
Read more: First Mover: What the Oil Price Collapse Means for Bitcoin’s Halving Valuation
Cash typically becomes king during deflation because the drop in the general price levels boosts the monetary unit’s purchasing power, or the ability to purchase goods and services.
“Unlike inflation, when people try to get out of the dollar because it's losing value, during deflation people are more comfortable with the dollar because its value is going up,” said Erick Pinos, ecosystem lead for the Americas at the public blockchain and distributed collaboration platform Ontology.
The rush for cash, however, may not have a substantially negative impact on bitcoin’s price because deflation would also boost the purchasing power of the cryptocurrency.
“While the price per coin may stagnate during a period of aggressive economic deflation, the inherent buying power of the currency will actually rise, possibly quite significantly,” said Brandon Mintz, CEO of the bitcoin ATM provider Bitcoin Depot.
AS TIME GOES ON AND PEOPLE BECOME MORE COMFORTABLE WITH DIGITAL ASSETS, THE AVERAGE PERSON BEGINS TO SEE BITCOIN AS A LEGITIMATE VIABLE ALTERNATIVE TO GOLD.
The uptick in the purchasing power will likely draw greater demand for bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency is already used as means of payment.
“Hundreds of thousands of businesses, brands and merchants do accept the ‘digital gold’ as payment, and thousands more every day are realizing the benefits of diversifying their revenue stream and accepting bitcoin as payment for their goods and services,” said Derek Muhney, director of sales and marketing at Coinsource, the world’s leader in Bitcoin ATMs.
Moreover, the cryptocurrency’s appeal as a medium of exchange is likely to continue strengthening with the growing prevalence of technology in consumers' everyday lives caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Digital gold

Ever since its inception, bitcoin has been dubbed “digital gold.” Like the yellow metal, the cryptocurrency is durable, fungible, divisible, recognizable and scarce.
Both assets share features that fulfill Aristotle’s call for a currency to be practical and functional. Bitcoin has actual utility as the means of payment, which gold lacks, according to Coinsource’s Muhney.
“As time goes on and people become more comfortable with digital assets, the average person begins to see Bitcoin as a legitimate viable alternative to gold. Thus, it's reasonable to assume that during a period of deflation bitcoin would perform well like gold has in the past,” said Eric Pinos, America's ecosystem lead at the public blockchain and distributed collaboration platform Ontology.
Read more: Looking for a Safe Haven Digital Asset? Try Gold
Hence, gold’s performance during the previous bouts of deflation could serve as a guide for bitcoin investors.
Historical data shows gold performs well during deflation, which includes a sharp rise in financial stress and increased risk of corporate defaults; highly levered companies tend to go bust during deflation because their revenues fall while their debt service payments remain the same.
Of course, gold’s shine is particularly bright during periods of inflation as well. As in periods of sizable deflation, inflation brings a set of price distortions that shake-up income statements and economies.
A commonly-used measure of stress is the “Ted spread” or the difference between the three-month U.S. interbank rate and the three-month T-Bill rate.
The real or inflation-adjusted price of gold rose an average 33 percent per annum in the 1970s, 18 percent in 1980s and 15.8 percent in 2000.
Underscoring all of the scenarios is that a sudden rise in economic stress usually fuels a global dash for cash, forcing investors to sell everything from stocks to gold. However, once economic uncertainty starts settling, people again start looking for safe havens.
“During the Great Recession, while gold initially declined alongside other equities, it found its footing and rallied faster than stocks recovered,” Ontology’s Pinos told CoinDesk.
The Ted spread spiked as high as 4.6 following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in August 2008. Gold fell from $920 to $680 per troy ounce in the August to October period, as investors treated the yellow metal as a source of liquidity, but still ended that year with 5.5 percent gains. More importantly, it rallied by 24 percent in 2009 and went on to hit a record high above $1,900 in 2011.
Read more: First Mover: Bitcoin Jumps as Fed Assets Top $6.5T and Traders Focus on Halving
The yellow metal’s recent price gyrations suggest history may be repeating itself. As the Ted spread rose from 0.11 to 1.42 in the four weeks to March 27, gold fell from $1,700 to $1,450 yet is now trading near $1,725 per ounce, having hit a 7-year high of $1,747 ten days ago.
Bitcoin, too, was treated as a source of liquidity last month, as evidenced from the near 40 percent drop to levels under $4,000 seen on March 12. Since then, however, the cryptocurrency has risen by nearly 85 percent to $7,500.
If gold’s historical data and the recent market activity is a guide, then the path of least resistance for bitcoin appears to be on the higher side.

Unprecedented stimulus to undermine fiat currencies

Both the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve have unleashed massive amounts of liquidity into the system over the past few weeks to contain the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
Notably, the Fed is running an open-ended asset purchase program and its balance sheet has already risen to record highs above $6.5 trillion. Meanwhile, central banks from New Zealand to Canada have slashed rates to zero and have recently announced bond purchase programs.
What’s more, the amount of fiscal stimulus announced by 22 countries in March is equivalent to 75 percent of the global gross domestic product (GDP), according to JPMorgan.
However, most governments and central banks appear to have run out of ammo. Hence, if the coronavirus pandemic continues to spread or leads to corporate defaults, investors may lose trust in traditional finance and look for alternatives like bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.
Moody's Analytics recently warned of the heightened risk of corporate defaults in the oil and gas sector across the globe, and weakness in entertainment and leisure giving way to pressure on consumer durables.
“The willingness to fight deflation should bode well for bitcoin,” said Richard Rosenblum, head of trading at GSR.
Meanwhile, Ashish Singhal, CEO and founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinswitch.co, said, “In a deflationary scenario, the chances of negative interest rates are high, and users would want to move their existing assets into more stable assets like bitcoin to prevent loss in their asset value.”
Interest rates are already set below zero across Europe and in Japan and are hovering at or near zero in other advanced countries.
Further, with central banks willing to do whatever it takes to defeat deflation, the real yield or inflation-adjusted returns on bonds are likely to remain negative or meagerly positive at best. As a result, zero-yielding assets like gold and bitcoin may attract more buyers.
Bank of America’s analysts noted earlier this week that the stimulus frenzy amid the coronavirus pandemic would put pressure on the currencies and send gold to $3,000 by October 2021.
While bitcoin could perform well during deflation, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have seldom tracked macro developments on a consistent basis in the past. “Blockchain-based currencies are really their own beasts,” said Bitcoin Depot CEO Brandon Mitz.
submitted by PresentType to newthebitcoininfo [link] [comments]

Weekly Update: Jason starts #discussionThursday, $COTI on Binance, WibsonTree, Harmony + IBC Media... – 21 Feb - 27 Feb'20

Weekly Update: Jason starts #discussionThursday, $COTI on Binance, WibsonTree, Harmony + IBC Media... – 21 Feb - 27 Feb'20
Hiya folks! With this update we will finally be 100% caught up with the latest. Let’s go! Here’s your week at Parachute + partners (21 Feb - 27 Feb'20):

As mentioned 2 weeks back, Alexis announced the start of a new style of raffle from this week. 300k $PAR in the pot to be won! Bose hosted a Friday Quiz in TTR on movies with a 10k $PAR prize pool. Cap shared a unique bit of trivia from the tipbotverse: ChangeTip, a bitcoin tipbot launched 7 years back, was acquired by Airbnb in 2016 that led to its closure. A crypto pioneer that was way ahead of its time. The usual suspects continue to be on top of the Fantasy Premier Leagure (#FPL) leaderboard – LordHades, Alexis and Novelcloud as per the latest update shared by LH. Alejandro hosted a gun-mode CoD game in the Parachute War Zone followed by a free-for-all for $PAR prizes. Tavo announced another CoD Battle Royale in the Parachute War Zone to be held next week. Afful’s TTR trivia was fun as always. Charlotte hosted another trivia in TTR as well for a 10k $PAR prize pool. Victor held one in TTR with another 10k $PAR pot as well. GamerBoy’s trivia in TTR this week was based on Kindergarten Geography. Haha! Belated Birthday wishes to Victor. Two-for-Tuesdays by Gian for this week had the theme rap/reggae/reggaeton. Like last week, Sebastian set up a YouTube playlist to compile all the entries. For #wholesomewed, Parachuters put on their creative hats as they made some epic artwork based on a primary shape shared by Jason. So much talent! There’s $PAR to be won! In the latest project update shared by Cap, ParJar is in final stages of testing with Transak, ParJar integrated coin-swaps are being worked on at the moment and $PAR-based Dex to be launched in the coming weeks in partnership with Switch. Jason launched a new event for Thursdays called #discussionThursday from this week. The first discussion series revolved around "something you don't understand". The goal is "hopefully someone that does understand it can explain it". Good conversations and altruism gets $PAR tips. TTR crew hosted a fun “guess the admin” contest based on the Parachute Christmas artwork.
Lmao Victor!
Happy Carnival to you too Rene
Just a sampling from all the #wholesomewed entries
20k $AXPR was burned as part of the weekly aXpire burn event. aXpire COO Matthew Markham wrote about how technological differentiators give PEs an edge over public markets. The latest Bilr blog post talks about disruptive technologies in the legal industry. 2gether CEO Ramon Ferraz appeared in an IEB podcast to talk about Neobanks. YouTuber FunOntheRide’s latest video covers collaborative economy and how 2gether plays a role in it. Head of Marketing, Laura Braulio explained must-do’s in marketing strategies for fintechs in her article which was published on ClickZ. The XIO DApp went into the final stages of unit testing this week. Beta tests should start soon. For #XIOSocial chatter, Citizens discussed the semantics of the term “crowdstaking”. Ethos’ parent company Voyager released the full Android version of its app this week. Switch-backed McAfeeDex is slated for some updates soon. Read about what’s coming up from John McAfee’s tweet. Plus, a new privacy coin “ghost” is on the horizon. $ESH holders are expected to get a taste of it on launch. For the latest update on Switch, click here. Fantom’s $FTM was one of the winners of a public vote to get listed on ZelCore. As an update to the fantom.rocks tool released last week by GoFantom (a Fantom validator), this week a dApp named Supercharge was released on top of it. Supercharge allows users to send 20 test transactions to demonstrate the speed of consensus. The DAO Maker shared a compilation of Fantom’s 2019 updates. For the 2020 project plan, click here. This was followed by a detailed 2020 roadmap. Too long? No sweat! This graphical representation of the roadmap by Generation Crypto is here to rescue you. Or, if you would rather watch a video, CMO Michael Chen made one. For notes, click here. The first version of Uptrennd’s mobile redesign is here. Congratulations to TREOS for winning the Round 1 of the Uptrennd free advertising package contest that launched last week. Voting for Round 2 started this week with Fantom included in this round. Banano ended up winning the second round and going head to head with TREOS in the finals. The first 2UP Tuesday kicked off this week with every upvote counting for twice the normal points (with the same rules applying for downvotes). Sweet! Uptrennd founder Jeff Kirdeikis was invited to speak at the EntrepreneurShip cruise event. Don’t forget the epic giveaway mentioned.
First sneak peek of Uptrennd’s new mobile design
Catch up on Distric0x’s Weekly update here. If you missed the DappDigest, the crew’s got your back. Their video walkthrough of ETHDenver covers snippets from the event along with Brady’s on-stage performance and an interview of Dmitry Buterin (Vitalik Buterin’s father). Read about how the recent fintech M&A deals will influence markets in this article by Hydrogen. The team sat down for an AMA with Crypto Cabital this week and also hosted a 150k $HYDRO giveaway. Fintech nerds, check out Hydro’s explainer blog post on open banking and WSO2. Is the project ticking off its roadmap items on time? Click here to find out. As a 2020 cohort member of the MassChallenge Fintech accelerator, Hydro’s Senior Director for Strategic Partnerships, Ken Kavanaugh travelled to Boston to talk about “platformication in fintech” at their meetup. If you are attending the Milwaukee Blockchain Conference in March, don’t forget to say Hi to Biz Dev Lead Mark Anstead where he will be a featured speaker. If you haven’t booked your tickets yet, there’s a 50% discount coupon available for you. $HYDRO got listed on DeFi aggregator Totle this week. How does Sentivate aim to solve HTTP / TCP bottlenecks? Click here to find out. For a primer on UDSP, click here. The Mycro Hunter landing page went live this week. OST’s Pepo is the official community app and partner of Europe-based Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) where it will also be collaborating with Epicenter podcast for the event. The first browser version of Pepo was released. Crypto exchange Mine Digital will be joining SelfKey’s exchange marketplace. SelfKey’s R&D team shared a 2020 update on the identity management space and how the project aims to place itself in this segment.
Early preview of the SelfKey Mobile Wallet to be submitted to App Store for review
For the latest Constellation community update, click here. Don’t forget to send in your questions for the AMA happening next week. Attendees of VeneCoiners meetup in Argentina next week, don’t forget to say Hi to the crew from Wibson who will be presenting the Rewards Marketplace at the event. The team also published a paper on “WibsonTree” which preserves data privacy when interacting with an agent. They hosted an Ethereum meetup this week to discuss DeFi. Here’s a video demo of how fast the Harmony mainnet is. The weekly #pow tweet thread summarises updates from across the team. KuCoin’s $ONE token swap is now complete. A new page was launched to monitor mainnet and testnet status. The crew attended a Binance meetup in Ukraine to talk about latest project updates. Harmony announced a partnership with IBC Media to incubate and accelerate Indian fintech startups. Safe Haven’s digital inheritance solution, Inheriti, will be available on the Harmony chain. $ONE was listed on MathWallet. Intellishare co-founder Nicholas Wan shared a sneak peek of the testnet mobile UI. dGen listed GET Protocol’s GUTS Tickets as one of the notable startups in the Dutch blockchain space in their Blockchain in Europe 2020 Review report. For a project overview click here – nicely summarised by Generation Crypto. GUTS will be ticketing 3 new shows of Chef’Special. Global Crypto Alliance live streamed another demo of its IoT prototype smartlock device being operated through $CALL tokens. The team also hosted a fun quiz on their Telegram this week. YouTuber Crypto Rich interviewed the crew on all things $CALL (Part I, Part II). Nik Patel’s detailed research report on COTI was published this week. $COTI was added to the Staking Rewards platform. And here’s a biggie, Binance listed both the ERC20 and BEP2 versions of the token this week with a bonus airdrop for deposits. Woot! Before the listing frenzy started, the team took a moment to take stock of the situation. A big listing like Binance leads to a lot of new eyeballs that could trigger scams. COTI crew shared their anti-scam guide for this reason. DOMSCRYPTO covered the project in their latest video. DoYourTip was covered in an iHODL news feature.

And with that, we close for this week at Parachute. See you again with another update. Ciao!
submitted by abhijoysarkar to ParachuteToken [link] [comments]

What are your thoughts on this?

[11:02 AM]suomynona:

Energy isn't free, and it could be spent on things which actually advance human society.

[11:02 AM]Christmas Clean:

hopefully more mass adoption will start coming into play which will drive the value up

[11:02 AM]ORMO[a]v2Swosh:

wizard toricredits are worth more than the venezuelan bolivar so

[11:02 AM]ORMO[a]v2Swosh:

good investment

[11:02 AM]Christmas Clean:

it's been doing pretty good so far in terms of adoption over the past few years

[11:02 AM]Christmas Clean:

still a long way to go

[11:02 AM]suomynona:

Inherently deflationary currencies don't lead to meaningful adoption.

[11:03 AM]suomynona:

I'm also pretty firmly anti-cryptocurrency because I don't believe the energy cost is worth it. If energy was free, it'd be an interesting fad, but energy isn't free.

[11:06 AM]suomynona:

according to google according to bbc approximately 7GW are going to bitcoin mining.

[11:06 AM]suomynona:

The majority of countries don't produce 7GW.

[11:07 AM]Christmas Clean:

I heard a lot of it comes from renewable sources like hydro, solar and wind

[11:08 AM]suomynona:

Okay, so that renewable energy goes towards bitcoin. But where does what otherwise would've been provided with that renewable energy then get its power from?

[11:08 AM]suomynona:

7GW isn't a small power supply, you can't just put it into the grid excesses, the grid can't handle it.

[11:09 AM]suomynona:

without a corresponding construction of 7GW worth of renewable energy sources, whether or not bitcoin specifically is being supplied with those 7GW is irrelevant, there's still 7GW of additional fossil fuel expenditures because fossil fuels are the options that are actually reactive enough to handle the increased grid load.

[11:11 AM]suomynona:

it's "easy enough" to come up with an extra 7GW from natural gas, for example, because most of those facilities aren't run exactly at capacity 100% of the time, but it's not possible to just pull 7GW of renewables out of your ass. Wind and solar don't work that way, and nobody's willing to construct nuclear.

[11:11 AM]suomynona:

but 7GW of fossil fuel power corresponds to some ridiculously huge carbon emission (~60 million tons CO2/yr, at a guess).

[11:12 AM]suomynona:

I really don't see the energy cost working out.

[11:13 AM]suomynona:

If you want it to be adopted more too this energy cost is going to go up, significantly.

[11:14 AM]suomynona:

I really don't see this problem scaling up nicely, especially if you want transaction times to be reasonable.

[11:14 AM]suomynona:

but without decent transaction times it can never hit anything resembling mainstream.

[11:15 AM]suomynona:

so instead you're forced to commit to putting an absolutely stupid amount of computing power largely to waste in the name of getting a publicly accountable currency going.

[11:16 AM]sir:

cryptocurrencies becoming an actual big thing is the antiutopia come to life

[11:16 AM]suomynona:

an extremely volatile currency which has been historically implicated to be highly untrustworthy as a value-retainer overall, and which is likely being manipulated by a small handful of parties playing on overly impressionable people

[11:17 AM]suomynona:

might as well sign up for a Trauma Team care plan at that rate, you'll just end up with a cyberpunk dystopia.

[11:19 AM]sir:

we are already in some sense
submitted by JohnLaserFist to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Why we won't have a long term bear market, and how to systematically pick your future investments in crypto

With so much uncertainty right now it would be a good time to take some time to go over what happened recently and how to invest moving foward. We've seen a peak bubble at around 850 billion total market cap in the first week of January, consolidated down to $750 billion and have now just experienced a 40% correction.

What's happening now and how bad will it get?

First of all you should realize that there is a January Dip that happens every year, when we see a roughly 20-30% decline around mid January. This year its been much more severe though for several additional factors that have compounded on top.
Different theories exist on why this happens (its actually the mirror opposite of the "January Effect" that happens in the US stock market), but the two major theories are:
1) Asian markets pull into fiat because of Asian New Year spending needs
2) People in the US sell in January to defer their capital gains tax liability an extra year
While this cyclic event has lead to a healthy correction in the last few years, this year we got these new factors making more fear as well:
So in essence we got a storm of scary news along with the usual cyclic downturn. Currently I don't see this as being a systematic crash like Mt.Gox was that would lead to a long term bear market because the fundamental ecosystem is still intact, and I suspect that after about a month we should consolidate around a new low. All the exchanges are still operational and liquid, and there is no breakdown in trust nor uncertainty whether you'll be able to cash out. What range the market trades in will all depend how Bitcoin does, right now we've already broken below 10K but I'm seeing a lot of support at around $8000, which is roughly where the long term MA curve settles. We don't know how bad it will get or what the future will bring, but as of right now we shouldn't be in a bear market yet.
What should you do if you recently entered the market?
If you did buy in the last few months at or near ATH, the very worst thing you can do now is sell in panic and lose your principal. You shouldn't have more money in crypto than you can afford to lose, so it shouldn't be a problem to wait. You have to realize that 30% corrections in crypto are relatively common, just last fall we had a 40% flash correction over more China fears. Unless there is a systematic breakdown like we had during Mt.Gox, the market always recovers.
The other worst thing you can do is unload into Tether as your safety net. If there is one thing that could actually cause a long term destruction of trust within the cryptocurrency investment ecosystem, its Tether having a run up on their liabilities and not having enough reserve to cover the leverage. It would not only bring down exchanges but lead to years of litigation and endless media headlines that will scare off everybody from putting fiat in. I don't know when the next Mt.Gox meltdown will occur but I can almost guarantee it will involve Tether. So stay away from it.
What should long term investors do?
For long term holders a good strategy to follow each year is to capture profit each December and swallow the capital gains taxation liability, park a reserve of fiat at Gemini (whose US dollar deposits are FDIC-insured) and simply wait till around late January to early February to re-enter the market at a discount and hold all year until next December. You can keep a small amount in core coins in order to trade around various Q1 opportunities you anticipate. Others may choose to simply do nothing and just keep holding throughout January which is also a perfectly fine strategy. The cyclical correction usually stabilizes toward late January and early February, then we see a rise in March and generally are recovered by end of April. Obviously this decision whether to sell in December to profit on the dip and pay tax liability or to just hold will depend on your individual tax situation. Do your own math sometime in November and follow suit.
Essentially revaluate your positions and trim your position sizes if you don't feel comfortable with the losses.

How to construct your portfolio going forward

Rather than seeing the correction as a disaster see it as a time to start fresh. If you have been FOMO-ing into bad cryptos and losing money now is a time to start a systematic long term approach to investing rather than gambling.
Follow a methodology for evaluating each cryptocurrency
Memes and lambo dreams are fun and all, but I know many of you are investing thousands of dollars into crypto, so its worth it to put some organized thought into it as well. I can't stress enough how important it is to try and logically contruct your investment decisions. If you follow a set methodology, a checklist and template you will be able to do relative comparisons between cryptocurrencies, to force yourself to consider the negatives and alternative scenarios and also sleep comfortably knowing you have a sound basis for your investment decisions (even if they turn out to be wrong).
There is no ideal or "correct" methodology but I can outline mine:
1) Initial information gathering and filtering
Once I identify something that looks like a good potential investment, I first go to the CoinMarketCap page for that symbol and look at the website and blockchain explorer.
  • Critically evaluate the website. This is the first pass of the bullshit detector and you can tell from a lot from just the website whether its a scam. If it uses terms like "Web 4.0" or other nonsensical buzzwords, if its unprofessional and has anonymous teams, stay away. Always look for a roadmap, compare to what was actually delivered so far. Always check the team, try to find them on LinkedIn and what they did in the past.
  • Read the whitepaper or business development plan. You should fully understand how this crypto functions and how its trying to create value. If there is no use case or if the use case does not require or benefit from a blockchain, move on. Look for red flags like massive portions of the float being assigned to the founders of the coin, vague definition of who would use the coin, anonymous teams, promises of large payouts...etc
  • Check the blockchain explorer. How is the token distribution across accounts? Are the big accounts holding or selling? Which account is likely the foundation account, which is the founders account?
  • Read the subreddit and blogs for the cryptocurrency and also evaluate the community. Try to figure out exactly what the potential use cases are and look for sceptical takes. Look at the Github repos, does it look empty or is there plenty of activity?
2) Fill out an Investment Checklist
I have a checklist of questions that I find important and as I'm researching a crypto I save little snippets in Evernote of things that are relevant to answering those questions:
  • What is the problem or transactional inefficiency the coin is trying to solve?
  • What is the Dev Team like? What is their track record? How are they funded, organized?
  • Who is their competition and how big is the market they're targeting? What is the roadmap they created?
  • What current product exists?
  • How does the token/coin actually derive value for the holder? Is there a staking mechanism or is it transactional?
  • What are the weaknesses or problems with this crypto?
3) Create some sort of consistent valuation model/framework, even if its simple
I have a background in finance so I like to do Excel modeling. For those who are interested in that, this article is a great start and also Chris Burniske has a great blog about using Quantity Theory of Money to build an equivalent of a DCF analysis for crypto.
Here is an Excel file example of OMG done using his model. You can download this and play around with it yourself, see how the formulas link and understand the logic.
Once you have a model set up the way you like in Excel you can simply alter it to account for various float oustanding schedule and market items that are unique to your crypto, and then just start plugging in different assumptions. Think about what is the true derivation of value for the coin, is it a "dividend" coin that you stake within a digital economy and collect fees or is it a currency? Use a realistic monetary velocity (around 5-10 for currency and around 1-2 for staking) and for the discount rate use at least 3x the long term return of a diversified equity fund.
The benefit is that this forces you to think about what actually makes this coin valuable to an actual user within the digital economy its participating in and force you to think about the assumptions you are making about the future. Do your assumptions make sense? What would the assumptions have to be to justify its current price? You can create different scenarios in a matrix (optimistic vs. pessimistic) based on different assumptions for risk (discount rate) and implementation (adoption rates).
If you don't understand the above thats perfectly fine, you don't need to get into full modeling or have a financial background. Even a simple model that just tries to derive a valuation through relative terms will put you above most crypto investors. Some simple valuation methods that anyone can do
  • Metcalfe's Law which states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system (n2). So you can compare various currencies based on their market cap and square of active users or traffic.
  • Another easy one is simply looking at the total market for the industry that the coin is supposedly targeting and comparing it to the market cap of the coin. Think of the market cap not only with circulating supply like its shown on CMC but including total supply. For example the total supply for Dentacoin is 1,841,395,638,392, and when multiplied by its price in early January we get a market cap that is actually higher than the entire industry it aims to disrupt: Dentistry.
  • If its meant to be just used as just a currency: Take a look at the circulating supply and look at the amount that is in cold storage or set to be released/burned. Most cryptos are deflationary so think about how the float schedule will change over time and how this will affect price.
Once you have a model you like set up, you can compare cryptos against each other and most importantly it will require that you build a mental framework within your own mind on why somebody would want to own this coin other than to sell it to another greater fool for a higher price. Modeling out a valuation will lead you to think long term and think about the inherent value, rather than price action.
Once you go through this 3-step methodology, you'll have a pretty good confidence level for making your decision and can comfortably sit back and not panic if some temporary short term condition leads to a price decrease. This is how "smart money" does it.
Think about your portfolio allocation
You should think first in broad terms how you allocate between "safe" and "speculative" cryptos.
For new investors its best to keep a substantial portion in what would be considered largecap safe cryptos, primarily BTC, ETH, LTC. I personally consider XMR to be safe as well. A good starting point is to have between 50-70% of your portfolio in these safe cryptocurrencies. As you become more confident and informed you can move your allocation into speculative small caps.
You should also think in terms of segments and how much of your total portfolio is in each segment:
  • Core holdings - BTC, Ethereum, LTC...etc
  • Platform segment - Ethereum, NEO, Ark...etc
  • Privacy segment - Monero, Zcash, PivX..etc
  • Finance/Bank settlement segment - Ripple, Stellar...etc
  • Enterprise Blockchain solutions segment -VeChain, Walton, WABI...etc
  • Promising/Innovative Tech segment - Raiblocks, IOTA, Cardano...etc
You should also think about where we are in the cycle, as now given so much uncertaintly its probably best to stay heavily in core holdings and pick up a few coins within a segment you understand well. If you don't understand how enterprise solutions work or how the value chain is built through corporations, don't invest in the enteprise blockchain solutions segment. If you are a technie who loves the technology behind Cardano or IOTA, invest in that segment.
Think of your "circle of competence"
This is actually a term Buffet came up with, it refers to your body of knowledge that allows you to evaluate an investment. Think about what you know best and consider investing in those type of coins. If you don't know anything about how supply chains functions, how can you competently judge whether VeChain or WaltonChain will achieve adoption?
This where your portfolio allocation also comes into play. You should diversify but really shouldn't be in much more than around 12 cryptos, because you simply don't have enough competency to accurately access the risk across every segment and for every type of crypto you come across. If you had over 20 different cryptos in your portfolio you should probably think about consolidating to a few sectors you understand well.
Continually educate yourself about the technology and markets
If you aren't already doing it: Read a bit each day about cryptocurrencies. There are decent Youtubers that talk about the market side of crypto, just avoid those that hype specific coins and look for more sceptical ones like CryptoInvestor. If you don't understand how the technology works and what the benefits of a blockchain are or how POS/POW works or what a DAG is or how mining actually works, learn first. If you don't care about the technology or find reading about it tedious, you shouldn't invest in this space at all.

Summing it up

I predicted a few days ago that we would have a major correction in 2018 specifically in the altcoins that saw massive gains in Decemebeearly January, and it seems we've already had a pretty big one. I don't think we'll have a complete meltdown like some are predicting, but some more pain may be incoming.
Basically take this time to think about how you can improve your investment style and strategy. Make a commitment to value things rather than chasing FOMO, and take your time to make a decision. Long term investment will grant you much more returns as will a systematic approach.
Take care and have fun investing :)
Edit March 2018: Lol looking back I'm regretting starting the title with "Why we won't have a long term bear market" now, I was more karma whoring with that catchy title than anything. We recovered up to 11K from this post, but then crashed again hard later in February-March because of a slew of reasons from Tether subpeona to unforseen regulatory issues.
submitted by arsonbunny to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Two fundamental questions about cryptocurrencies

Let me preface this with the fact that I am deep into crypto and these are questions I've debated over and over with my colleagues. I am a believer in crypto and this is meant to engage conversation.
With that out of the way :)
  1. How would a society function with a deflationary currency (as most cryptos are) as the de facto currency? It would discourage spending on non-necessary items slowing down the economy. Without consumption, production would slow. While your money would grow, it would kill debtors. As you borrow money, that money would become more expensive to pay back and assets would fall in value leading to higher default rates.
  2. In the first world, what incentives do consumers have to switch over to crypto as an everyday payment method? Credit cards are inherent a better product. You are rewarded for using the cards in a responsible manner. Consumers also drive merchant decisions, so saying the merchant would switch to crypto to cut out fees is not a solid argument. Perhaps they could offer discounts, but how/why would they consider crypto is inherently a volatile product?
Got many more, but figured we can start with these two. Looking forward to hearing why these are not a worry!
submitted by WBStudios to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

New IGM Poll: Bitcoin

submitted by 1amathrowaway to neoliberal [link] [comments]

Throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

Hi there, I was reading a bunch of posts on this sub, and I think its hilarious/sad how accurate you guys portrait the delusion in the crypto space. I think you are spot on for most projects that are just buzzword spewing fool suckering Ponzi schemes that offer no real value, but there are some projects that have real usecase. So here are my main bags, that I think shouldn't be grouped with all the useless scams and if its just because how the devs act on a moral scale: Nano, Holo.
If you allow it I would like to talk about my own conclusions, and you can then decide if you want to call me a stupid butter or not. I am looking to debate with someone who opposes my views, not shill you my bags, they are pretty small anyway.
I will talk about Nano since it is the most promising in my opinion. I am aware that its speculation and risky, but I personally think that holding some in addition to my fiat savings is a smart move, in case adoption will grow. I put a portion of my surplus salary into Nano every month. To be honest the project makes me excited and not just for the possibility of moonlambos.
Let me explain:
You probably heard the basics: Fast, free, green blah blah. While those are parroted all over, lets stop and think for a second. These are definitely positive characteristics, if you like it or not.
Something I see here often is people claim a coin is useless because nobody uses it. My answer to that is that we are still extremely early, and it is correct to say that it is 99.9% speculation. I am speculating that Nano will be used for some usecases in our growing sharing economy on the net, which will rise demand and therefore the price. Also more usage will get better stability.
So let me give you some usecases I can think of:
1) I want to read a paywalled article on a site I never use. I will not pay a subscription now just to read one article, but if I could use a browser plugin to pay the journalist x Nano and unlock that specific article I would love to.
2) Tipping on social media. Lets be honest reddit gold is mostly useless. I would much rather gift a user that helped me with some issue, made me laugh super hard or pointed out a logical flaw in my argument some Nano, which he can actually use to purchase something of value at accepting vendors. The nano tip bot already allows this both on reddit and on twitter.
3) Streaming a song could have a micropayment directly to the artist, and I would be willing to pay more than the sub 0.01$ Spotify pays per play. Same with other art.
Imagine for example a VR art gallery and each piece you look at you pay a small amount. If you want to you can donate to the artist or even buy a high-res picture that you can print.
Now there are other criticism I read, like lack of stability, deflationary currency, vulnerability to spam, the devs using their dev fund (really?), the supposed shill army, and a bunch of people that are misinformed how the protocol and consensus on nano works.
I personally think most of these criticisms are not huge issues, although I have to say I am not an economist and never understood why deflationary currency is always inherently bad. I get that it encourages holding, but from an investment standpoint that is an advantage. So this is where you will cry Ponzi I guess.
About the shill army on reddit I will just say this. People can be excited about new technology especially if it has such a potential to fundamentally disrupt how we view and use money. After 2008 I don't want to exclusively depend on FIAT anymore.
Nano is the idea of Bitcoin but it actually works. If you disagreed with the premise of Bitcoin in the first place I won't change your mind, but maybe consider that not the entire crypto space is run by greed and scam. Bitcoin isn't a scam its a good idea but with too much limitations. It still got a lot of hype from excited people, and again, not purely out of a desire of getting rich. Nano is the same in that way.
I am looking forward to hopefully a civilized discussion.
My point is a decentralized currency that allows microtransactions without fees IS useful even if it is just a glorified decentralized spreadsheet. That doesn't invalidate its usefulness.
submitted by StonedHedgehog to Buttcoin [link] [comments]

An Anarchist Case Against Markets

I originally posted this to DebateAnarchism but thought it would be good for discussion here as well
This post was inspired by a debate I had on this sub with a Market Anarchist, which stopped advancing beyond a certain point due to several impasses that we could never get beyond. It became frustrating for both of us after a while because we kept talking past each other.
I wanted to make this post in an effort to clearly explain the following: 1) What I mean when I say that I am "against markets", 2) Why I am against markets, 3) What mechanisms I think can serve as effective replacements for markets, and 4) Responses to common criticisms.
(Disclaimer: I am only pointing out problems with markets pertinent to the target audience of this sub that supports them - Market Anarchists. There is no need to make criticisms of market features that Market Anarchists do not endorse in the first place. This post is not intended to be a general or all-inclusive criticism of markets, because Market Anarchists are anti-capitalists anyway.)
"Against Markets"
I don't seek to "ban" markets in an anarchist social context (obviously, because I'm an Anarchist), but I seek to make them obsolete. This is what I mean when I say that I am "against markets".
The Problems with Markets (as they pertain to Market Anarchism) (in no particular order)
The authors investigate how worker-owned and capitalist enterprises differ with respect to wages, employment, and capital in Italy, the market economy with the greatest incidence of worker-owned and worker-managed firms. Estimates calculated using a matched employer-worker panel data set for the years 1982–94 largely corroborate the implications of orthodox behavioral models of the two types of enterprise. Co-ops had 14% lower wages than capitalist enterprises, on average; more volatile wages; and less volatile employment. Given the quality of the data set analyzed, the authors argue, these results can be regarded as having broad generality
(Note: Regarding the point about "less volatile employment" in favor of coops...this study was done comparing between capitalist firms and worker coops. The wages were largely reflective of wages for union members because the wages in capitalist firms regardless of whether the workers were union members or not were based on regional collective bargaining by the unions. However, (unlike with the wages) the job security is not reflective of job security for union members. While we can see that union wages are higher than income for workers working in cooperatives, we cannot make a meaningful comparison based on this study between union job security and coop job security.)
If you want an efficient market system for coordinating production and distribution, you need a flexible labor market. Unfortunately, a more flexible ("freer") labor market leads to reduced labor share of income even under worker ownership (Self-Exploitation). On the other hand, workers forming cartels (monopolizing/oligopolizing access the labor in their field) that restrict labor markets is the only way to halt the trend of decreasing labor share of income - this is essentially what the function of labor unions is. So you need labor cartels to prevent Labor self-Exploitation (in the Marxist sense), while these labor cartels will themselves either be impossible to enforce in the absence of authority (because of the equivalent of Scabs) OR even if they can be enforced without authority they will undermine the efficiency of the markets in your society (because cartels screw up the function of prices in a market).
Alternatives
Based on what is written below regarding ECP and HKP, there is no longer a reason (with regard to rational economic calculation or information) to think that decentralized planning and gift economy dynamics would be unable to entirely replace the role of markets.
Answers to Common Criticisms/Objections
I've been told this recently in an argument with a Market Anarchist. However, he never was able to explain specifically how and why these differences would manifest and on what basis one could claim that it would alter my calculus and conclusions above.
In that case you've massively restricted the potential scale and scope in which markets can have a role in the functioning of your economy. I suppose that's fine, but in that case I would ask the question: Why retain them at all? Why not seek to replace them entirely?
To put it simply, ECP just says that you need a mechanism that allows you to compare multiple possible allocation pathways for resources in order to know which allocation pathway is the most efficient use of resources. And HKP basically says that those who do a particular kind of activity in the economy learn the information relevant to that activity as they perform it. Furthermore, this information is disparate and best able to be extracted by lots of people individually doing particular activities that they focus on.
There's nothing inherent about a large firm that prevents this from happening more so than an aggregate of small firms playing the same role in aggregate as the large firm does by itself. Large firms that are run bottom-up and allow their members autonomy (as was the case of with each of the collectives/syndicates in Catalonia, in contrast to large firms in capitalism) can discover and disseminate this information at least as well as an aggregate of small firms playing the same role as the large firm by itself. As support for my claim, I reference The Anarchist Collectives by Sam Dolgoff - a book that contains multiple empirical examples showing that collectivization of multiple separate firms (which had been engaging in exchange transactions with one another to form a supply chain prior to the Anarchist revolution in Spain) into singular firms of operation from start to finish across the entire supply chain, actually improved productivity, innovation within the production process, and distribution of end products. This actually addresses both HKP and ECP. As per Hume's Razor, we can therefore conclude that a reduction in the scope, role, and presence of intermediary exchange transactions/prices between steps in the supply chain neither results in reduced ability to acquire & disseminate information nor results in reduced economic efficiency. Furthermore (as per Hume's Razor), we can conclude that it is not the scope, role, or presence of prices/exchange transactions that enable either rational economic calculation or the acquisition & dissemination of knowledge. This is because (as per Hume's Razor) if it were true that prices/markets are necessary or superior to all other methods for efficient information discovery & dissemination as well as for rational economic calculation, it would not have been the case that we could have seen improvements in productivity, innovation, and distribution of end products in the aforementioned examples after substantially reducing (via collectivization/integration of various intermediary and competing firms) the role, scope, and presence of prices/markets within the economy.
The alternative explanation (one that is more credible after the application of Hume's Razor and keeping the aforementioned empirical examples in mind) is that optimally efficient information discovery & dissemination as well as rational economic calculation, are both possible in a non-market framework when individuals have autonomy and can freely associate/dissociate with others in the pursuit of their goals.
What's written above should be sufficient to address this objection as well. If it is not the scope, role, and presence of prices/exchange transactions that enable either rational economic calculation or the acquisition & dissemination of knowledge...then there is no basis upon which to argue there will necessarily be (from an information or rational economic calculation standpoint) more bureaucracy in aggregate in a society that has replaced markets, than there would be in a society that retains them.
However, there remains the objection that bureaucracy would exist to a larger extent due to the lack of competitive pressures against inefficiency. My response is to point out that empirical evidence from revolutionary Anarchist societies indicate strongly to the contrary. The role and presence of competition was greatly reduced while there was a simultaneous improvement in efficiency. As per Hume's Razor, we can therefore reject the notion that it is competition specifically that inherently prevents bureaucratic buildup in individual firms. It seems, from these empirical examples, that the best way to prevent bureaucracy is not through market competition between several small firms but through Anarchist praxis involving a lack of hierarchy and authority within large firms (recall that I often use the term "firm" to refer to collectives, syndicates, etc. for the purposes of this post), such that there is no ossified system of rank within the large firm. The absence of an ossified system of rank within firms is the true key to preventing the accumulation of bureaucracy within firms.
Note the three types of efficiency in the linked video - Allocative Efficiency, Productive Efficiency, and Dynamic Efficiency.
The evidence from Anarchist Spain during the Spanish Civil War (which I discussed above) indicates that Productive Efficiency and Allocative Efficiency was improved in various industries and communities where Anarchist collectivization took place. This trend only reversed and ended as the State undermined the Anarchists through various measures, such as cutting them off of currency that was needed to acquire resources from outside the Anarchist-controlled regions, using that leverage over currency to take over control of various industries away from the Anarchists, etc... Thus far, the market anarchists I have discussed this issue with have agreed on this point.
Where I have faced disagreement from market anarchists is on the issue of Dynamic Efficiency aka "Innovative Efficiency". Those whom I have discussed this with argue that markets optimize dynamic efficiency better than any other alternative.
My response is as follows... Evidence indeed does not support the commonly held view that (within a market economy) larger firms have greater dynamic efficiency. However, it does show that investment into R&D (especially by small firms) in market settings is substantially impacted by whether or not there are Intellectual Property Rights.
For me, this raises a natural question: In an Anarchist social context where there are no intellectual property rights, would a framework of cooperation/collectivization into larger firms be more dynamically efficient than competition between smaller firms? Let's look at the following...
(1) Evidence shows that, in general, Intellectual Property Rights have a substantial net negative impact on innovative efficiency:
To summarize, although only tentative conclusions can be drawn given the small number of empirical studies, the body of available empirical evidence suggests that patents may substantively hinder both subsequent scientific research and subsequent product development. Across a relatively heterogeneous set of technologies within the life sciences, and examining various forms of intellectual property rights, the available empirical evidence suggests that property rights hinder cumulative innovation—with declines on the order of 30 percent. Clearly much more work is needed in order to examine the extent to which these patterns generalize to other technologies and other forms of intellectual property, but the best available evidence suggests that mechanisms that reward innovation in a way that places the technologies in the public domain—such as patent buyouts—may have substantial benefits in terms of encouraging cumulative innovation, at least in some contexts.
(2) Evidence shows that firms - in the context of a market economy - invest less in R&D without the presence of Intellectual Property Rights of some form.
So to summarize, IP generally has a substantial net negative impact on dynamic efficiency but in the context of a market economy IP is necessary to incentivize firms to invest adequately into R&D.
Based on this we can argue that in an Anarchist social context, a non-market framework (involving decentralized planning and gift economy dynamics) of cooperation/collectivization into larger firms is likely to be more dynamically efficient than a market framework of competition between multiple smaller firms. This means that replacing markets with cooperative/collectivized dynamics will likely improve dynamic efficiency - the opposite of what the market anarchists I have discussed this issue with claim.
I have had a discussion with a market anarchist who argued that certain kinds of tasks will not be adequately completed without monetary incentive - particularly tasks that are unpleasant or those which people do not enjoy.
However, this ignores the historical and contemporary evidence of Anarchists accomplishing these tasks without monetary incentive - see below:
https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/peter-gelderloos-anarchy-works#toc53
https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/sam-dolgoff-editor-the-anarchist-collectives#toc57
https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/peter-gelderloos-anarchy-works#toc24
(A) First, here is the simplified logic behind why I find Marx's Law of Value Compelling as compared to Subjective Value Theory:
(i) The function of markets is to optimize supply and demand so that resources are allocated efficiently. An efficient allocation of resources enables future reproduction and growth of an economy. When the market suddenly undoes the very allocation of supply to fulfill demand that it had previously built up such that the economy subsequently shrinks, the previous build up can be thought of as a market failure. Hence the process by which prices plummet (along with all the subsequent effects) until the market can reorient to start growing the economy again, can be accurately called "correction". Given that prices can be incorrect such that they require "correction", price and value cannot be the same thing.
(ii) A bubble bursts in the economy when previously inflated prices are corrected. (Note that "correction" is not my own term, but a term frequently used to describe such phenomena in economics.)
(iii) The only way to make sense of this is that prices originally (prior to the bubble bursting) deviated from values too much.
(iv) If it is the case that prices can deviate too much from values while prices are derived from the interplay of various actors' marginal utilities, value cannot be subjective. There must be an objective substance of value around which prices can deviate (to an extent).
(v) Therefore, STV is invalid as a theory of value.
(vi) Having accepted this logic, it follows that we require an objective theory of value as opposed to a subjective theory of value. Now the question becomes: What should this objective theory of value be?
(vii) An objective theory of value must express value as being comprised of some definable substance(s).
(viii) Given that we have established value as something objective rather than subjective, it must be possible for commodities to be exchanged in such a way that there is equal Value on both sides of an exchange.
(ix) In order for things to have equal value, the substance of value must be some characteristic that all commodities share but also separates them from non-commodities.
(x) The only such characteristic is that they can all be produced by simple/"unskilled" human labor.
(xi) Therefore, expressing the value of a commodity must be done in units of simple/"unskilled" human labor.
(B) Furthermore, it has come to my attention that some market anarchists find Marx's Law of Value uncompelling as a result of the Transformation Problem. My response is to look into TSSI, which has made it clear that the Transformation Problem is a non-issue.
The reason this is important is that if you agree with Marx's Law of Value, then you necessarily would find worker cooperatives and market socialism of any variety (including market anarchism) highly problematic due to Self-Exploitation.
submitted by PerfectSociety to CapitalismVSocialism [link] [comments]

Trading BITCOIN With DEFLATION  How Well Can it Do? Bitcoin Q&A Lost coins and the deflationary experiment Bitcoin Q&A: Lost coins and the deflationary experiment Bitcoin Q&A Divisibility and deflationary monetary policy Bitcoin Q&A: Divisibility and deflationary monetary policy

Bitcoin was designed to be inherently deflationary, because there will only every be 21 million coins in circulation at the maximum. Once they’ve all been mined (by approximately 2140), that’s it. As such the value of an individual coin is likely to rocket up, but the prices of goods and services should fall. 7. It’s Private Bitcoin is Inherently Deflationary . There’s a reason the Federal reserve shoots for low inflation. As the economy expands, so should the amount of dollars in the system. But if deflation kicks in, a single dollar would buy you more in the future. Finance will either have to find ways of introducing bitcoin denominated securities, 1920s-style, that will cause asset bubbles to form or the bitcoin political economy will nosedive into a deflationary spiral that either causes untold hardship amongst its users or leads them, as is more likely, to abandon bitcoin altogether. TLDR: Bitcoin is inherently inflationary until 2020 and is only under deflation currently because people are transitioning to it. Even after Bitcoin is inherently deflationary the percent per year is not enough to cause significant hoarding or lack of investing. The value that would be created by economic growth in the world is simply bestowed So, Bitcoin is commonly quoted as an inherently deflationary currency. I quote from Mastering Bitcoin "The bitcoin protocol halves the rate at which new bitcoins are created every four years, and limits the total number of bitcoins that will be created to a fixed total of 21 million coins. The result is that the number of bitcoins in circulation closely follows an easily predictable curve that

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Trading BITCOIN With DEFLATION How Well Can it Do?

Trump Wears a Mask & The White House Goes After Fauci The Daily Social Distancing Show - Duration: 8:54. The Daily Show with Trevor Noah Recommended for you. New Bitcoin Q&A: Divisibility and deflationary monetary policy - Duration: 7:03. aantonop 7,729 views. 7:03 🔴LIVE Cardano Summit 2020 Charles Hoskinson Opening Keynote: ... With a limit of 21 million, Bitcoin is deflationary, however, popular economic theory states that inflation is necessary for economic growth. Could bitcoin use hurt the growth of an economy? Keywords/phrases: Bitcoin's monetary policy is simulated to resemble precious metals, restricted supply without fractional reserve. 21 million is the maximum number of coins that will ever be created. Fiat money can buy less and less over time, underlining the value of scarce assets. As the macroeconomic outlook has recently changed, there’s a lot discussion of an impending deflationary period.

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